1678 General Election - Mid Polls and Analysis

[Alduria]

 

• Collapse of support for the Euran Destiny Party among Aldurians due to lack of a campaign and the recent announcement that they would "renounce democracy" and withdraw from participating in the democratic process, saying "We reject a future where the true born sons and daughters of Eura are tolerated as a patina of quaint ethnic colour smeared on the margins of the vile and degenerate liberal state that has been vomited onto our Euran homeland by these godless exiles." Analysts are expecting a steep drop in turnout among most ethnic Babkhans as they burn their electoral cards and adhere to the electoral boycott. Given that deadlines for campaigns and filing have closed and we're now in the last track of the election, I'll "park" the EDP around 9%-10% for the remainder of the election.
  
• The Liberty and Democracy Party is running an excellent campaign and growing as a large tent party for centrists, libertarians, economic conservatives, globalists, and urban voters - it is working hard to remind all voters of their stewardship of the economy and the drastic military buildup that has led to strong victories against the West Baatharzi insurgents. They have wide cross over appeal, but that same crossover appeal is starting to hurt them a bit with their libertarian original base. While libertarian voters are mad with their ever-expanding tent party, they're not going to run to the ANA any time soon given its turn towards social conservatism, populism, and opposition to the Law of Graces. The platform was basically a rehash from the original one and offered nothing new - part of politics is that, if you've been around for a while, you need to continually come up with something new to offer to the electorate. I think there was potential here to craft a good vision for where the LDP wants to take Alduria, although to be fair - the speeches are filling in the blanks on that. I'd recommend using ads that highlight your most popular policies to voters, to shore up confidence and get the party's policy message to more people. The best thing this campaign has for itself is that its unremittingly globalist support for the Law of Graces, a tradition that has saved the lives of millions of Aldurians and is widely popular. The events have been great, consistently great in quality and in its message. It is unabashedly pro-immigrant, as it understands that closing what many call "the golden door" in Alduria does not poll well. And that brings me to the other party in the Aldurian right...
  
• The Aldurian National Alliance is also running a great and solid campaign. I was incredibly impressed by the platform, it was very well written and what many dissatisfied voters in the nascent Aldurian political scene (remember Alduria is barely 8 years old) wanted to hear. Rural conservative voters are flocking to this party. It has been very clear in how different it is from the LDP, giving a voice to traditional rural voters and urban social conservatives in Alduria. Without a strong Zurvanite social conservative party like the EDP participating, a small, limited number of Zurvanites have turned to strategic voting to check what they consider the most libertine impulses of an incredibly progressive and liberal government while weakening what they see as a "colonial occupation". I liked that the campaign took a risk with memes - bringing memetic political warfare into play. I can see the memes getting a lot of replay in social media, mainly as the thing that gets shared, retweeted, or chain mailed by an elder relative or uncle as well as edgelords from 4chan. In the process, however, it has alienated a lot of young people, most urban voters, and most economic conservatives. The campaign's focus on reaching to other native Eurans has been noted - especially in the Constancian and Ladino communities. Some of the growth for the party also comes from religious voters, who are motivated and feeling empowered by the rise of this new party. Its lurch to the right has also scared off many center-right voters that left with Alejandro Campos and Natalia Cotilla - those voters, for all intents and purposes, are now LDP votes.
  
• The Democratic Farmer Labor Party is the grant tent coalition of Alduria's left and it is showing that a unified political front in Alduria can perform well. The platform was spectacular, in my opinion - it actually provided a bedrock declaration for the alliance of the left with the Neuva Barris Declaration and then proposed an appealing platform that had a little something for every part of its great tent. The creation of a national health care system and a national education system have brought it much support from parents, urban voters, and young voters. Its labor points in the platform have earned it the support of almost all the labor unions and syndicates in Alduria, relying on many of them to organize and campaign for the party. The party has not grown much however because it has not participated meaningfully in the parliamentary campaign. I'd recommend focusing on delivering content that can be used in both the presidential and parliamentary campaigns - it's tough to run both on one's own, not everyone is a marathon underdog like the ANA. There's real potential here to offer a positive left-wing message to both urban and rural voters, emphasizing social justice. There's a chance for strong appeal among Ladino voters (inherited from the New Center), most of them who are left-wing and should be natural voters of the DFL. Come out and campaign!
  
• With a steep drop in minority turnout, we're seeing small amounts of minority voters from the Ladino and Eurani (liberal Babkhans) communities withdrawing from participation. Smaller candidacy and regional party lists have taken hits as the LDP, DFL, and the ANA roar into activity and become more appealing than smaller candidates. This is affecting the Independent vote severely.
  

• Gerhardt Seydlitz, initially considered the frontrunner of the race, had a delayed start that has conceded key ground to the candidates presented by the DFL and the ANA. His campaign retains a key, energized core - especially among those on the right that are terrified of Camille Belmont. If Seydlitz does not make up for the lost time with great speeches and events and align with the strong, effective message of the parliamentary LDP, it could find itself hemorrhaging voters to Alamilla, in a mad dash to defeat Belmont. Seydlitz is a known quantity and is personally popular, he was an effective and successful Cabinet Secretary and a fine parlamentarian. There's potential here to frame the message around the candidate and the party platform and get on a path to win.
  
• Guillermo Alamilla has started strong - great platform, great starting speech. Not as energized or active as the Belmont campaign, the appeal of Alamilla currently rests on currently being the most viable opposition to defeating Belmont, as Seydlitz remains absent from the campaign trail. If Alamilla manages to come out swinging and seizes on its soft second place, it can solidify it against a rising Seydlitz and beat Belmont.
  
• Camille Belmont is running a strong campaign and has a message very well-aligned with the rest of the ANA party apparatus, integrating the parliamentary leader in the campaign effectively - it conveys a very unified and strong image that has led her candidacy for President straight to the top. Belmont's support is a bit soft, however. Many right-wing voters that have seen Seydlitz languish with a slow start to his campaign and want to avoid a leftist Presidency have begrudgingly floated to support Belmont. Its divisive politics and commitment to curtail immigration to the country leave the Belmont candidacy dangerously vulnerable.
  
• NOTE: The Aldurian Constitution says that a President is elected at the first ballot if an absolute majority is obtained. If no one obtains an absolute majority, the election shall pass to a second round, which will be held over three days between the top two vote-getters. The second round of the presidential election shall be held over Wed Nov 13 and Fri Nov 15, with results on Saturday Nov 16.